I’ve read a few of these letters now and I’ve been meaning to read the book. It’s all about topics that I’m interested in but are not all that useful to me so I’m never sure how much time I want to put into them. They’re all down to the China-US relations and how that might play out the next few years. Who will win and what is going to happen when all this ends. It is all a bit up in the air now I guess but he does give an interesting perspective from the whole thing given he’s one of the few that write about their experiences living in both of them. I guess he doesn’t know either though but the letter is still interesting to see the both sides of the story.
AI is the main part of the story, as it is for much of the world here too. He’s not overly bullish on the tech but still leaves room for plenty of upside. I mean this in the way that it can do a lot of things but the exponential progress from the current standing point over the next few years he throws plenty of shade on. I guess on this I’m in agreement. I think it has plenty of potential but the likelihood of it completely changing everything in the next few years is very limited. Everywhere I look I see loads of pushback or pessimism on the way it is affecting things already, probably a symptom of how tech overall is looked on from the world at large. It is no longer a force for good or a reason to be optimistic, but rather viewed cautiously and with suspicion and negativity. A lot probably is warranted.
I guess these are all world I don’t run around in so hearing it from an insider but also an outsider is always an interesting perspective, though I think he’s more an insider than he lets on. Perhaps it is written mainly for tech insiders of the valley who want a different perspective but not one different enough to rock the boat too much as it seems to be the case where Silicon Valley values diversity but only in certain areas and definitely not if it ruins what the heard is all working towards, which is AI at the moment.
Tech cares less for dissent. Its movements are more herdlike, in which companies and startups chase one big technology at a time. Startups don’t need dissent; they want workers who can grind until the network effects kick in. VCs don’t like dissent, showing again and again that many have thin skins. That contributes to a culture I think of as Silicon Valley’s soft Leninism. When political winds shift, most people fall in line, most prominently this year as many tech voices embraced the right.
Overall I wonder about his productivity. I can barely listen to a podcast a day, never mind think about appearing on 7 of them. How does someone take in so much and do so much. I’m not sure what he spends his years doing apart from writing the letters but its surely something if he’s managing to take it all in. I guess this is his job is one thing, to take it all in and form opinions on it all. Living on the ground in various areas and being able to take in the culture seems like a lot.
One thing though is his pessimism on Europe. I wonder and fear for what is in store. One side of me is optimistic that we can at least take some of the potential growth the next few years. Figure some of it out. I don’t think the problems are all that complex. I think it is all more akin to fixing leaky pipes than tearing down the whole system. Even a few percent of extra growth would go a long way. Getting away from stagnation towards a slight improvement year over year is the main goal and I don’t think it would take a huge lift to do such a thing. Of course it is negativity here and everywhere you read, but part of me wonders are things all that hopeless as everyone lets up. I mean sure the US and China have their own success stories but surely it is not out of reach for the EU to have theirs. I guess we’ll find out.
And I guess that is why I wonder what I get out of reading this policy and high level stuff. One part it is interesting to see how the wider winds are shifting, but I feel not much I can do to change them. That though is probably why I’m not in Silicon Valley or somewhere else where someone there reading the same thing will wonder how they can inflict some directional change on it or nudge it one way or another. Nevermind they’re not going to make one bit of difference probably, or might go the opposite way, but that hope, that dream is what keeps the system going and moving all together. So long as you are going the same way as everyone else.